![]() Specific securities are mentioned for informational purposes only.Īll investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, investment strategy, or individual’s investment does not guarantee future results or returns. Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that security. We do not give investment advice, tax advice, or other professional advice. Consequently, your results may significantly vary from his. We cannot guarantee that you will make money or that you will be successful if you employ his trading strategies specifically or generally. They could result in a loss of an entire investment. Charles’ strategies may not always be accurate, and his investments may not always be profitable. Due to sensitivity of financial information, we do not know or track the typical results of our students. Charles does not personally participate in every investment alert he provides. ![]() Charles is an experienced investor and your results will vary depending on education, work experience, and background. However, junk still outperforms long bonds-at this point, that says risk on-but a cautious risk on with junk gapping lower and taking out summer lows (but holding March lows at 72.61).Charles Payne's results are not typical and are not a guarantee of your success. The first chart shows you that a sell signal mean reversion as far as the ratio between long bonds and junk bonds signaled. How DBA (ags) and DBC (commodity index) do relative to the strong dollar and higher yields. How the retail and transportation sectors do (along with small caps) as they represent the “inside” of the US economy. ![]() Here are the signals we are waiting for before overly committing to a bias.Īs we wrote over the weekend, how the junk bonds (high yield high debt bonds), do independently, and how they perform against the long bonds (TLT). Hopefully, that also means you are waiting for certain signals to help you commit to one way or another. If you are finding yourself fluctuating between bullishness and bearishness, then congratulations! Mish’s Daily: 3 Key Relationships to Help Assess Market Direction However, it does tend to stress everyone out. So, if our Grandparents struggle, could other areas hold up? Sure. XRT sits right above the 80-month but remember, it never cleared the 23-month. We can surmise that should IWM fail to hold this MA by the end of October, darker times are coming.ġ0 years from 2010-2020 IWM was in good shape which although underperforming QQQ, which told us the economy was hanging in there and dips could be bought.įor 2 months IWM closed below the 80-month MA in 2020 (Covid), then came right back above it by May 2020. The 80-month moving average (green line) is a longer-term business cycle or about 6-7 years.īesides the blip during covid, IWM has not BROKE that 80-month MA since 2010. Now, along with Retail XRT, both IWM and XRT-Granddad and Grandma of the Economic Modern Family-have a new story to tell. Then, after a calendar range reset, we warned about “Sell in July and Go Away” once IWM entered August and could not hold those gains. The Russell 2000 (IWM) spent one month (July) above the 23-month MA. We began the year examining the 23-month moving averages in all the indices and major market sectors.īuy anything that cleared the blue line (2-year business cycle), which we explained was a good reflection of a cycle within a cycle (6-7 year cycles are typical).Īfter all, after an unusual 2020-2022, from 2022-2024 we thought that any index or sector that broke out was showing signs of an intermediate expansion.Īnd any index or sector that could not clear the blue line, was not only a warning about how long an expansion could last, but also an indication of inherent problems in the economy and market. Mish’s Daily: Time to Talk 6-7 Year Market Business Cycles
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